Re: From words to dates: Water into wine, mathemagic or phylogeneti

--- In cybalist@yahoogroups.com, "tgpedersen" <tgpedersen@...> wrote:

>
> --- In cybalist@yahoogroups.com, "mkelkar2003" <swatimkelkar@> wrote:
> >
> >
>

http://language.psy.auckland.ac.nz/publications/index.php?pub=Words_to_dates05

> >
> > Atkinson, Q., Nicholls, G., Welch, D., Gray, R.D. (2005) FROM WORDS
> > TO DATES: WATER INTO WINE, MATHEMAGIC OR PHYLOGENETIC INFERENCE?
> > Transactions of the Philological Society Volume 103:2 (2005) 193–219
> >
> > "Abstract:
> >
> > Gray & Atkinson's (2003) application of quantitative phylo- genetic
> > methods to Dyen, Kruskal & Black's (1992) Indo- European database
> > produced controversial divergence time estimates. Here we test the
> > robustness of these results using an alternative data set of ancient
> > Indo-European languages. We employ two very different stochastic
> > models of lexical evolution – Gray & Atkinson's (2003) finite-sites
> > model and a stochastic-Dollo model of word evolution introduced by
> > Nicholls & Gray (in press). Results of this analysis support the
> > findings of Gray & Atkinson (2003). We also tested the ability of
> > both methods to reconstruct phylogeny and divergence times
> > accurately from synthetic data. The methods performed well under a
> > range of scenarios, including widespread and localized borrowing. "
>
>
> This report concludes that even with very different statistical
> methods, PIE will have begun to split apart not in the Kurgan Urheimat
> theory range 3000-4000 BCE, but in the Anatolian Urheimat theory range
> 6000-7000 BCE (illustration p. 23). However, according to that same
> illustration, if we peel off the Anatolian languages, the rest of IE
> will have split up only 500 yrs before 'Kurgan time' and if we further
> peel off Tocharian the next split-up, separating
> Greek/Armenian/Albanian from the rest, takes place only 200 yrs before
> that time. Now Greek is supposed to have descended from the so-called
> Catacomb culture in the Eastern Ukraine, which means they stayed
> "home" in the Ukraine until well into Kurgan time. The separation of

According to the Anatolian farming hypothesis Greek came from Turkey
along with the farmers, not from Ukraine. As far as the IIr,
especially the Iranians, a detour through the steppes is quite
unnecessary. Iran is next door to Turkey.

What I find the most intriguing is the following. The time difference
between the traditional date of Rig Veda and the Indological one is
exactly the same, 3000 years, as the that between the Anatolian and
the Kurgan theories.

M. Kelkar

> Indo-Iranian from Balto-Slavic and Western European takes place in the
> upper range of Kurgan time, which means that mr Kelkar's project of
> chasing Indo-Iranian out of Kurgan, or Kurgan out of Indo-Iranian, has
> stranded again.
>
> And even for the Urheimat question of the whole PIE, given the fact
> that it split off Anatolian in Anatolia and Tocharian in Sinkiang, it
> would be odd to place it in Anatolia. Some place in the middle seems
> more reasonable.
>
> Other than that, it seems the kentum/satem distinction doesn't play a
> large role in the development of the tree. At least one IE dialect
> must have stayed undecided until the split that separated Balto-Slavic
> from West-European. One advantage of placing the kentum/satem
> distinction etc as allophones in PIE is that we don't have to explain
> the appearance of several similar developments in separate branches
> (eg. Indo-Iranian and Balto-Slavic second palatalization).
>
>
> Torsten
>