http://language.psy.auckland.ac.nz/publications/index.php?pub=Words_to_dates05
Atkinson, Q., Nicholls, G., Welch, D., Gray, R.D. (2005) FROM WORDS TO
DATES: WATER INTO WINE, MATHEMAGIC OR PHYLOGENETIC INFERENCE?
Transactions of the Philological Society Volume 103:2 (2005) 193219
"Abstract:
Gray & Atkinson's (2003) application of quantitative phylo- genetic
methods to Dyen, Kruskal & Black's (1992) Indo- European database
produced controversial divergence time estimates. Here we test the
robustness of these results using an alternative data set of ancient
Indo-European languages. We employ two very different stochastic
models of lexical evolution Gray & Atkinson's (2003) finite-sites
model and a stochastic-Dollo model of word evolution introduced by
Nicholls & Gray (in press). Results of this analysis support the
findings of Gray & Atkinson (2003). We also tested the ability of both
methods to reconstruct phylogeny and divergence times accurately from
synthetic data. The methods performed well under a range of scenarios,
including widespread and localized borrowing. "
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